Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Edgar Chairez
CJ Vergara
71%
29%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
68"
29
Age
Δ 5y
34
13-7
Career record
Δ 8 pp
12-8-1
L1
Current streak
L2
4
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Chairez: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Vergara: 6 sig / 0 TD
Edgar Chairez
CJ Vergara
46
Sig strikes landed
48
102
Sig strikes attempted
93
57
Total strikes landed
61
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
88s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Edgar Chairez
"Puro Chicali"
13-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
L
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
Blue corner
L2
CJ Vergara
12-8-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
—
L
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandh…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Ara…
—