Prelims1
Featherweight
Christian Rodriguez vs Melquizael Costa
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg
·Arena CDMX
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Christian Rodriguez
Melquizael Costa
35%
65%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
71"
27
Age
Δ 1y
28
13-4
Career record
Δ 1 pp
27-8
W1
Current streak
W2
7
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rodriguez: 64 sig / 6 TD ·
Costa: 65 sig / 1 TD
Christian Rodriguez
Melquizael Costa
31
Sig strikes landed
34
62
Sig strikes attempted
78
47
Total strikes landed
48
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.4
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
127s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Christian Rodriguez
"Ceerod"
13-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Ty…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Bar…
—
W
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Melquizael Costa
"The Dalmatian"
27-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno…
—
L
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—