Back to UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg
Prelims1 Middleweight

Jose Daniel Medina vs Ateba Gautier

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg ·Arena CDMX
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Jose Daniel Medina
Ateba Gautier
24% 76%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
81"
34
Age
Δ 11y
23
L1
Current streak
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1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Daniel Medina: 17 sig / 0 TD · Gautier: 28 sig / 0 TD
Jose Daniel Medina
Ateba Gautier
29
Sig strikes landed
47
57
Sig strikes attempted
91
45
Total strikes landed
63
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
114s
Control time
155s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Jose Daniel Medina

"Chicho"
11-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
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Blue corner

Ateba Gautier

"The Storm"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
81"
Stance
Switch
Age
23