Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rafa Garcia
Vinc Pichel
83%
17%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
31
Age
Δ 12y
42
19-5
Career record
Δ 9 pp
14-6
L1
Current streak
L2
8
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Garcia: 64 sig / 2 TD ·
Pichel: 79 sig / 0 TD
Rafa Garcia
Vinc Pichel
56
Sig strikes landed
50
114
Sig strikes attempted
117
80
Total strikes landed
67
1.8
Takedowns landed
1.2
4.4
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
208s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Rafa Garcia
"Gifted"
19-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—
Blue corner
L2
Vinc Pichel
"From Hell"
14-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
42
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
L
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—