Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Manuel Torres
Drew Dober
73%
27%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
30
Age
Δ 6y
36
17-4
Career record
Δ 17 pp
29-16
L1
Current streak
L2
4
UFC fights in our DB
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Torres: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
Dober: 3 sig / 0 TD
Manuel Torres
Drew Dober
45
Sig strikes landed
28
78
Sig strikes attempted
68
52
Total strikes landed
42
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.4
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
54s
Control time
77s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Manuel Torres
"El Loco"
17-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
Blue corner
L2
Drew Dober
29-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
24 fights · 13-10
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Im…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—
L
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—