Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Brandon Moreno
Steve Erceg
66%
34%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
31
Age
Δ 2y
30
24-10-2
Career record
Δ 7 pp
14-5
W1
Current streak
L2
17
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Moreno: 89 sig / 1 TD ·
Erceg: 116 sig / 0 TD
Brandon Moreno
Steve Erceg
71
Sig strikes landed
60
153
Sig strikes attempted
135
89
Total strikes landed
73
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.3
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
157s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Brandon Moreno
"The Assassin Baby"
24-10-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
17 fights · 10-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Alb…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
L
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
Blue corner
L2
Steve Erceg
"Astroboy"
14-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
—
L
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—