Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Stephanie Luciano vs Sam Hughes
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Stephanie Luciano
Sam Hughes
70%
30%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
64"
25
Age
Δ 8y
33
8-2-1
Career record
Δ 10 pp
12-7
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Luciano: 82 sig / 1 TD ·
Hughes: 76 sig / 3 TD
Stephanie Luciano
Sam Hughes
69
Sig strikes landed
60
151
Sig strikes attempted
143
78
Total strikes landed
81
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
-0.1
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
57s
Control time
200s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Stephanie Luciano
"Rondinha"
8-2-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spi…
—
Blue corner
W1
Sam Hughes
"Sampage"
12-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 4-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
W
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Ara…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—