Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Daniel Barez
Andre Lima
34%
66%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
36
Age
Δ 10y
26
18-8
Career record
Δ 31 pp
12-0
W1
Current streak
W3
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Barez: 33 sig / 1 TD ·
Lima: 108 sig / 2 TD
Daniel Barez
Andre Lima
36
Sig strikes landed
42
71
Sig strikes attempted
84
46
Total strikes landed
78
0.4
Takedowns landed
2.8
0.6
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
64s
Control time
224s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Daniel Barez
18-8
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Sa…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
Blue corner
W3
Andre Lima
"Mascote"
12-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
—
W
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Nama…
—