Main
Heavyweight
Sergei Pavlovich vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov
·anb Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sergei Pavlovich
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
83%
17%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 6"
78"
33
Age
Δ 4y
37
21-4
Career record
Δ 11 pp
16-6
L2
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pavlovich: 25 sig / 2 TD ·
Rozenstruik: 17 sig / 0 TD
Sergei Pavlovich
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
38
Sig strikes landed
27
75
Sig strikes attempted
55
48
Total strikes landed
34
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.1
0.7
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.60
Knockdowns
0.20
69s
Control time
28s
Method
Decision
16%
KO/TKO
78%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Sergei Pavlovich
21-4
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
84"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
W
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
"Bigi Boy"
16-6
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
14 fights · 9-5
Last 5
W
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—