Main
Bantamweight
Said Nurmagomedov vs Vinicius Oliveira
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov
·anb Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Said Nurmagomedov
Vinicius Oliveira
32%
68%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
33
Age
Δ 4y
29
19-5
Career record
Δ 7 pp
24-4
W1
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nurmagomedov: 38 sig / 1 TD ·
Oliveira: 43 sig / 3 TD
Said Nurmagomedov
Vinicius Oliveira
48
Sig strikes landed
51
124
Sig strikes attempted
124
58
Total strikes landed
69
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.0
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
71s
Control time
87s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Said Nurmagomedov
19-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—
Blue corner
W2
Vinicius Oliveira
"LokDog"
24-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—