Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Shara Magomedov
Michael Page
56%
44%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 6"
79"
31
Age
Δ 7y
38
17-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
25-4
W4
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Magomedov: 38 sig / 0 TD ·
Page: 43 sig / 0 TD
Shara Magomedov
Michael Page
40
Sig strikes landed
41
74
Sig strikes attempted
94
51
Total strikes landed
50
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
0.6
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
121s
Control time
82s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Shara Magomedov
"Bullet"
17-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
Blue corner
L1
Michael Page
"Venom"
25-4
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Switch
Age
38
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
W
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—