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Prelims1 Heavyweight

Shamil Gaziev vs Thomas Petersen

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov ·anb Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Shamil Gaziev
Thomas Petersen
65% 35%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
35
Age
Δ 5y
30
15-3
Career record
Δ 8 pp
12-4
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Gaziev: 14 sig / 0 TD · Petersen: 19 sig / 1 TD
Shamil Gaziev
Thomas Petersen
41
Sig strikes landed
34
89
Sig strikes attempted
53
72
Total strikes landed
53
2.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
6.6
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
284s
Control time
69s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
7%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Shamil Gaziev

15-3
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
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W UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
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Blue corner
W1

Thomas Petersen

"The Train"
12-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jand…
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L UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Im…
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