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Prelims1 Featherweight

Bogdan Grad vs Lucas Alexander

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov ·anb Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Bogdan Grad
Lucas Alexander
73% 27%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
29
Age
Δ 0y
30
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Grad: 46 sig / 3 TD · Alexander: 34 sig / 0 TD
Bogdan Grad
Lucas Alexander
33
Sig strikes landed
34
63
Sig strikes attempted
72
54
Total strikes landed
39
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.0
3.4
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
188s
Control time
32s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Bogdan Grad

"The Unleashed"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
L1

Lucas Alexander

"The Lion"
8-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
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