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Israel Adesanya vs Nassourdine Imavov

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov ·anb Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Israel Adesanya
Nassourdine Imavov
58% 42%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 5"
75"
36
Age
Δ 7y
29
24-7
Career record
Δ 4 pp
18-4
L2
Current streak
W3
17
UFC fights in our DB
10

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Adesanya: 26 sig / 0 TD · Imavov: 15 sig / 0 TD
Israel Adesanya
Nassourdine Imavov
71
Sig strikes landed
69
127
Sig strikes attempted
136
72
Total strikes landed
90
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
0.8
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
46s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
5%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Israel Adesanya

"The Last Stylebender"
24-7
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Switch
Age
36
In our database 17 fights · 13-4
Last 5
L UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
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L UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
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W UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
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L UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
W UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
Blue corner
W3

Nassourdine Imavov

"The Sniper"
18-4 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 10 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Sa…
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W UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Im…
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L UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
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W UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
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