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Bogdan Guskov vs Billy Elekana

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano ·Intuit Dome
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Bogdan Guskov
Billy Elekana
68% 32%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
77"
32
Age
Δ 3y
30
W2
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Guskov: 47 sig / 0 TD · Elekana: 20 sig / 1 TD
Bogdan Guskov
Billy Elekana
32
Sig strikes landed
22
58
Sig strikes attempted
44
47
Total strikes landed
32
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
95s
Control time
67s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
59%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Bogdan Guskov

"Hitman"
19-3-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
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W UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
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L UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
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Blue corner

Billy Elekana

"Son of Susie"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30