Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Grant Dawson
Diego Ferreira
87%
13%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
31
Age
Δ 9y
40
25-3-1
Career record
Δ 12 pp
20-7
W2
Current streak
W2
12
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dawson: 56 sig / 6 TD ·
Ferreira: 41 sig / 0 TD
Grant Dawson
Diego Ferreira
61
Sig strikes landed
47
124
Sig strikes attempted
104
95
Total strikes landed
61
3.4
Takedowns landed
0.3
8.1
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
388s
Control time
61s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Grant Dawson
"KGD"
25-3-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
12 fights · 10-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
—
W
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
Blue corner
W2
Diego Ferreira
20-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
15 fights · 10-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—