Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Rinya Nakamura
Muin Gafurov
54%
46%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
30
Age
Δ 1y
29
11-1
Career record
Δ 17 pp
21-7
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nakamura: 31 sig / 0 TD ·
Gafurov: 37 sig / 0 TD
Rinya Nakamura
Muin Gafurov
36
Sig strikes landed
25
70
Sig strikes attempted
51
57
Total strikes landed
47
3.2
Takedowns landed
0.7
5.6
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
280s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Rinya Nakamura
"Hybred"
11-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
Blue corner
W1
Muin Gafurov
"Tajik"
21-7
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—