Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Karol Rosa
Ailin Perez
57%
43%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
20-7
Career record
Δ 13 pp
14-2
W1
Current streak
W4
10
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rosa: 53 sig / 0 TD ·
Perez: 62 sig / 2 TD
Karol Rosa
Ailin Perez
53
Sig strikes landed
51
89
Sig strikes attempted
90
95
Total strikes landed
92
0.9
Takedowns landed
2.3
1.8
Takedowns attempted
11.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
163s
Control time
282s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Karol Rosa
20-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spi…
—
L
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
—
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
Blue corner
W4
Ailin Perez
"Fiona"
14-2
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Sa…
—
W
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—