Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jailton Almeida
Serghei Spivac
68%
32%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
34
Age
Δ 4y
30
23-5
Career record
Δ 6 pp
19-6
W1
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Almeida: 23 sig / 1 TD ·
Spivac: 15 sig / 1 TD
Jailton Almeida
Serghei Spivac
22
Sig strikes landed
15
44
Sig strikes attempted
28
48
Total strikes landed
30
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.5
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
231s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jailton Almeida
"Malhadinho"
23-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
Blue corner
W1
Serghei Spivac
"Polar Bear"
19-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—