Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jiri Prochazka
Jamahal Hill
90%
10%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 1"
79"
32
Age
Δ 1y
34
32-7-1
Career record
Δ 9 pp
12-5
L1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Prochazka: 97 sig / 0 TD ·
Hill: 81 sig / 0 TD
Jiri Prochazka
Jamahal Hill
59
Sig strikes landed
56
120
Sig strikes attempted
115
73
Total strikes landed
69
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
119s
Control time
55s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jiri Prochazka
32-7-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
W
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
L
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
Blue corner
L1
Jamahal Hill
"Sweet Dreams"
12-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
9 fights · 6-2
Last 5
L
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—