Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Kevin Holland
Reinier de Ridder
49%
51%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 3"
78"
32
Age
Δ 2y
34
29-16
Career record
Δ 20 pp
22-4
L1
Current streak
W1
23
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Holland: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
de Ridder: 12 sig / 2 TD
Kevin Holland
Reinier de Ridder
42
Sig strikes landed
53
79
Sig strikes attempted
92
50
Total strikes landed
69
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.7
0.9
Takedowns attempted
5.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
25s
Control time
201s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Kevin Holland
"Trailblazer"
29-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
23 fights · 13-9
Last 5
L
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree J…
—
W
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. She…
—
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Reinier de Ridder
"RdR"
22-4
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prat…
—