Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Payton Talbott
Raoni Barcelos
58%
42%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
67"
26
Age
Δ 11y
38
12-1
Career record
Δ 10 pp
23-5
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Talbott: 49 sig / 1 TD ·
Barcelos: 62 sig / 8 TD
Payton Talbott
Raoni Barcelos
53
Sig strikes landed
55
112
Sig strikes attempted
97
58
Total strikes landed
75
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.4
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
63s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Payton Talbott
12-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Nama…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
Blue corner
W1
Raoni Barcelos
23-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
—
L
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—