🏆 Title fight
Main
Bantamweight
Merab Dvalishvili vs Umar Nurmagomedov
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
·Intuit Dome
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Merab Dvalishvili
Umar Nurmagomedov
46%
54%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
34
Age
Δ 5y
29
22-5
Career record
Δ 14 pp
21-1
W8
Current streak
W6
13
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Dvalishvili: 111 sig / 7 TD ·
Nurmagomedov: 104 sig / 2 TD
Merab Dvalishvili
Umar Nurmagomedov
52
Sig strikes landed
66
129
Sig strikes attempted
139
89
Total strikes landed
93
1.6
Takedowns landed
2.1
6.0
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
146s
Control time
211s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Merab Dvalishvili
"The Machine"
22-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
13 fights · 11-2
Last 5
W
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
—
W
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
W
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
W
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
Blue corner
W6
Umar Nurmagomedov
21-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—