🏆 Title fight
Main
Lightweight
Islam Makhachev vs Renato Moicano
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
·Intuit Dome
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Islam Makhachev
Renato Moicano
88%
12%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
33
Age
Δ 2y
36
29-1
Career record
Δ 23 pp
22-7-1
W8
Current streak
W4
16
UFC fights in our DB
17
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Makhachev: 6 sig / 1 TD ·
Moicano: 9 sig / 0 TD
Islam Makhachev
Renato Moicano
52
Sig strikes landed
23
81
Sig strikes attempted
70
76
Total strikes landed
34
2.4
Takedowns landed
0.2
5.6
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
275s
Control time
25s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
42%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Islam Makhachev
29-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
16 fights · 15-1
Last 5
W
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
Blue corner
W4
Renato Moicano
22-7-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
17 fights · 12-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Sa…
—
W
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Im…
—
W
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
L
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—