Back to UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Prelims1 Women's Flyweight

Ernesta Kareckaite vs Nicolle Caliari

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Ernesta Kareckaite
Nicolle Caliari
60% 40%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 9"
62"
26
Age
Δ 2y
28
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Kareckaite: 95 sig / 0 TD · Caliari: 67 sig / 3 TD
Ernesta Kareckaite
Nicolle Caliari
49
Sig strikes landed
48
132
Sig strikes attempted
114
75
Total strikes landed
77
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
187s
Control time
161s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Ernesta Kareckaite

"Heavy-Handed"
6-3-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
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Blue corner

Nicolle Caliari

0-0
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28