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Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Magomed Gadzhiyasulov vs Bruno Lopes

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov
Bruno Lopes
51% 49%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
31
Age
Δ 0y
32
W1
Current streak
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1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gadzhiyasulov: 31 sig / 0 TD · Lopes: 33 sig / 5 TD
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov
Bruno Lopes
19
Sig strikes landed
15
26
Sig strikes attempted
25
36
Total strikes landed
42
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.0
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
190s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
33%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Magomed Gadzhiyasulov

10-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
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Blue corner

Bruno Lopes

"The Brazilian Cowboy"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32