Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jose Johnson
Felipe Bunes
67%
33%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
30
Age
Δ 6y
35
16-11
Career record
Δ 1 pp
14-10
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Johnson: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Bunes: 2 sig / 0 TD
Jose Johnson
Felipe Bunes
38
Sig strikes landed
36
79
Sig strikes attempted
65
54
Total strikes landed
54
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
134s
Control time
148s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jose Johnson
"Zhakwarius"
16-11
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos …
—
Blue corner
L1
Felipe Bunes
"Felipinho"
14-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—