Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Marco Tulio
Ihor Potieria
51%
49%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
75"
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
—
Current streak
L2
0
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Tulio: 29 sig / 0 TD ·
Potieria: 6 sig / 0 TD
Marco Tulio
Ihor Potieria
33
Sig strikes landed
41
68
Sig strikes attempted
81
50
Total strikes landed
51
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
131s
Control time
90s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Marco Tulio
"Matuto"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
L2
Ihor Potieria
"Duelist"
20-9
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 2-5
Last 5
L
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree J…
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L
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
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W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
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L
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Ts…
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L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
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