Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Thiago Moises
Trey Ogden
59%
41%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
30
Age
Δ 5y
35
19-11
Career record
Δ 10 pp
19-7
L1
Current streak
W2
13
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Moises: 55 sig / 0 TD ·
Ogden: 59 sig / 1 TD
Thiago Moises
Trey Ogden
38
Sig strikes landed
38
83
Sig strikes attempted
86
51
Total strikes landed
57
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.3
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
150s
Control time
164s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Thiago Moises
19-11
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
13 fights · 7-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Ty…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
—
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
Blue corner
W2
Trey Ogden
"Shamurai"
19-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
6 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jand…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Nama…
—
L
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—