Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chris Curtis
Roman Kopylov
70%
30%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
75"
38
Age
Δ 5y
33
32-14
Career record
Δ 7 pp
16-5
L1
Current streak
W1
9
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Curtis: 142 sig / 0 TD ·
Kopylov: 130 sig / 1 TD
Chris Curtis
Roman Kopylov
58
Sig strikes landed
62
110
Sig strikes attempted
139
71
Total strikes landed
76
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
0.6
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
17s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Chris Curtis
"Action-Man"
32-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
9 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—
W
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—
L
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
W
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
Blue corner
W1
Roman Kopylov
16-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. She…
—
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—