Main
Welterweight
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Carlston Harris
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Carlston Harris
78%
22%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
38
Age
Δ 1y
38
31-10
Career record
Δ 8 pp
19-9
L2
Current streak
L1
18
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Ponzinibbio: 76 sig / 0 TD ·
Harris: 73 sig / 0 TD
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Carlston Harris
41
Sig strikes landed
38
102
Sig strikes attempted
91
63
Total strikes landed
55
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.3
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
79s
Control time
105s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Santiago Ponzinibbio
"Argentine Dagger"
31-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
18 fights · 11-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
L
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
W
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—
L
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
Blue corner
L1
Carlston Harris
"Mocambique"
19-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Mu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—