Back to UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Main Women's Strawweight

Mackenzie Dern vs Amanda Ribas

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Mackenzie Dern
Amanda Ribas
66% 34%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 3"
66"
32
Age
Δ 0y
31
17-5
Career record
Δ 15 pp
13-8
W1
Current streak
L1
14
UFC fights in our DB
11

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Dern: 27 sig / 1 TD · Ribas: 17 sig / 2 TD
Mackenzie Dern
Amanda Ribas
71
Sig strikes landed
65
153
Sig strikes attempted
145
99
Total strikes landed
89
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.3
4.9
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
226s
Control time
161s
Method
Decision
80%
KO/TKO
11%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Mackenzie Dern

17-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 14 fights · 9-5
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
L UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
—
L UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
—
Blue corner
L1

Amanda Ribas

13-8
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Nama…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
L UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—
W UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
L UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—