Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jordan Vucenic
Chris Duncan
58%
42%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
29
Age
Δ 3y
32
13-5
Career record
Δ 12 pp
16-3
L1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Vucenic: 16 sig / 1 TD ·
Duncan: 15 sig / 4 TD
Jordan Vucenic
Chris Duncan
36
Sig strikes landed
39
84
Sig strikes attempted
77
54
Total strikes landed
57
2.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.2
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
208s
Control time
107s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jordan Vucenic
"The Epidemic"
13-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1
Chris Duncan
"The Problem"
16-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Sa…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
W
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—