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Nathaniel Wood vs Morgan Charriere

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Nathaniel Wood
Morgan Charriere
73% 27%
Why
69"
Reach
69"
32
Age
Δ 2y
29
24-6
Career record
Δ 17 pp
22-12-1
W1
Current streak
W1
11
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Wood: 72 sig / 0 TD · Charriere: 42 sig / 1 TD
Nathaniel Wood
Morgan Charriere
55
Sig strikes landed
42
106
Sig strikes attempted
103
78
Total strikes landed
50
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.2
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
159s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Nathaniel Wood

"The Last Kingsman"
24-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
L UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
W UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
W UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
W UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
Blue corner
W1

Morgan Charriere

"The Last Pirate"
22-12-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Sa…
L UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
W UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac