Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Gunnar Nelson
Kevin Holland
45%
55%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 9"
81"
37
Age
Δ 4y
32
20-6-1
Career record
Δ 10 pp
29-16
W2
Current streak
L2
15
UFC fights in our DB
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nelson: 15 sig / 3 TD ·
Holland: 55 sig / 0 TD
Gunnar Nelson
Kevin Holland
30
Sig strikes landed
26
41
Sig strikes attempted
56
63
Total strikes landed
49
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.9
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.60
260s
Control time
77s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
33%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Gunnar Nelson
"Gunni"
20-6-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
37
In our database
15 fights · 10-5
Last 5
W
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
W
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
Blue corner
L2
Kevin Holland
"Trailblazer"
29-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
24 fights · 13-10
Last 5
L
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
—
L
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree J…
—
W
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. She…
—