Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jai Herbert
Chris Padilla
39%
61%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
37
Age
Δ 7y
30
15-6-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
18-6-1
W1
Current streak
W2
8
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Herbert: 38 sig / 0 TD ·
Padilla: 39 sig / 0 TD
Jai Herbert
Chris Padilla
30
Sig strikes landed
41
79
Sig strikes attempted
81
35
Total strikes landed
52
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
88s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jai Herbert
"Black Country Banger"
15-6-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
8 fights · 3-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
D
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
Blue corner
W2
Chris Padilla
"Taco"
18-6-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
—