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Prelims1 Flyweight

Lone'er Kavanagh vs Felipe dos Santos

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady ·The O2 Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Lone'er Kavanagh
Felipe dos Santos
64% 36%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
26
Age
Δ 1y
24
11-1
Career record
Δ 25 pp
8-4
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kavanagh: 58 sig / 4 TD · dos Santos: 51 sig / 0 TD
Lone'er Kavanagh
Felipe dos Santos
60
Sig strikes landed
55
134
Sig strikes attempted
152
71
Total strikes landed
63
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
146s
Control time
59s
Method
Decision
80%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
5%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Lone'er Kavanagh

11-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figuei…
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Blue corner
L1

Felipe dos Santos

"Lipe Detona"
8-4 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
—
W UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
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L UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
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