Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Marcin Tybura
Mick Parkin
57%
43%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 1"
79"
39
Age
Δ 10y
30
28-11
Career record
Δ 20 pp
11-1
W1
Current streak
W4
21
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tybura: 61 sig / 1 TD ·
Parkin: 60 sig / 1 TD
Marcin Tybura
Mick Parkin
42
Sig strikes landed
52
94
Sig strikes attempted
100
59
Total strikes landed
65
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.9
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
136s
Control time
95s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Marcin Tybura
"Tybur"
28-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
21 fights · 13-8
Last 5
W
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Ty…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
Blue corner
W4
Mick Parkin
11-1
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Nama…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—