Back to UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2
Prelims1 Bantamweight

Colby Thicknesse vs Aleksandre Topuria

UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 ·Qudos Bank Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Colby Thicknesse
Aleksandre Topuria
67% 33%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
26
Age
Δ 3y
29

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Thicknesse: 38 sig / 0 TD · Topuria: 41 sig / 1 TD
Colby Thicknesse
Aleksandre Topuria
36
Sig strikes landed
34
78
Sig strikes attempted
72
55
Total strikes landed
47
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.0
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
136s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Colby Thicknesse

"Slickness"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner

Aleksandre Topuria

"El Conquistador"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29