Main
Welterweight
Jake Matthews vs Francisco Prado
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2
·Qudos Bank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jake Matthews
Francisco Prado
67%
33%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
30
Age
Δ 8y
23
24-8
Career record
Δ 8 pp
12-6
W1
Current streak
L1
20
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Matthews: 68 sig / 0 TD ·
Prado: 59 sig / 1 TD
Jake Matthews
Francisco Prado
60
Sig strikes landed
49
129
Sig strikes attempted
112
70
Total strikes landed
61
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.8
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
155s
Control time
40s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jake Matthews
"The Celtic Kid"
24-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
20 fights · 13-7
Last 5
W
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—
Blue corner
L1
Francisco Prado
12-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno…
—
L
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—