Prelims1
Featherweight
Jack Jenkins vs Gabriel Santos
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2
·Qudos Bank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Jack Jenkins
Gabriel Santos
51%
49%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
15-4
Career record
Δ 8 pp
13-2
W1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Jenkins: 34 sig / 0 TD ·
Santos: 39 sig / 4 TD
Jack Jenkins
Gabriel Santos
55
Sig strikes landed
50
112
Sig strikes attempted
102
74
Total strikes landed
65
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.3
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
113s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jack Jenkins
"Phar"
15-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
—
L
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—
W
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
Blue corner
W1
Gabriel Santos
"Mosquitinho"
13-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—
L
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—