Prelims1
Featherweight
Sean Woodson vs Fernando Padilla
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley
·Amalie Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Sean Woodson
Fernando Padilla
54%
46%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
14-2-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
17-6
W3
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Woodson: 38 sig / 0 TD ·
Padilla: 22 sig / 0 TD
Sean Woodson
Fernando Padilla
61
Sig strikes landed
59
125
Sig strikes attempted
145
67
Total strikes landed
68
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
26s
Control time
67s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Sean Woodson
"The Sniper"
14-2-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
8 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—
W
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
D
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
—
Blue corner
W1
Fernando Padilla
"El Valiente"
17-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Nama…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. She…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—