Prelims1
Lightweight
Joel Alvarez vs Drakkar Klose
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley
·Amalie Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joel Alvarez
Drakkar Klose
78%
22%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 7"
70"
32
Age
Δ 5y
37
24-4
Career record
Δ 5 pp
17-3-1
W2
Current streak
W4
8
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Alvarez: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Klose: 7 sig / 1 TD
Joel Alvarez
Drakkar Klose
40
Sig strikes landed
41
94
Sig strikes attempted
77
59
Total strikes landed
64
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
68s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Joel Alvarez
"El Fenomeno"
24-4
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
—
W
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
Blue corner
W4
Drakkar Klose
17-3-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
11 fights · 9-2
Last 5
W
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Ts…
—
W
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—
L
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—