Back to UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley
Prelims1 Lightweight

Michael Johnson vs Ottman Azaitar

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley ·Amalie Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Michael Johnson
Ottman Azaitar
45% 55%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
38
Age
Δ 4y
35
26-20
Career record
Δ 20 pp
13-4
W1
Current streak
L2
29
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Johnson: 19 sig / 0 TD · Azaitar: 16 sig / 0 TD
Michael Johnson
Ottman Azaitar
43
Sig strikes landed
40
90
Sig strikes attempted
80
61
Total strikes landed
45
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
89s
Control time
77s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Michael Johnson

"The Menace"
26-20
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
39
In our database 29 fights · 14-15
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
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L UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
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W UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
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L UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
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Blue corner
L2

Ottman Azaitar

"Bulldozer"
13-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
35
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno…
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L UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
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W UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
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W UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
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