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Navajo Stirling vs Tuco Tokkos

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley ·Amalie Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Navajo Stirling
Tuco Tokkos
78% 22%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
27
Age
Δ 7y
34
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Stirling: 78 sig / 0 TD · Tokkos: 32 sig / 3 TD
Navajo Stirling
Tuco Tokkos
36
Sig strikes landed
22
63
Sig strikes attempted
36
67
Total strikes landed
34
3.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
154s
Control time
66s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Navajo Stirling

0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
L1

Tuco Tokkos

11-7
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
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