Back to UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley
Main Featherweight

Cub Swanson vs Billy Quarantillo

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley ·Amalie Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Cub Swanson
Billy Quarantillo
61% 39%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
41
Age
Δ 5y
36
31-15
Career record
Δ 2 pp
18-8
L1
Current streak
L1
24
UFC fights in our DB
10

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Swanson: 99 sig / 0 TD · Quarantillo: 97 sig / 3 TD
Cub Swanson
Billy Quarantillo
70
Sig strikes landed
65
140
Sig strikes attempted
131
86
Total strikes landed
88
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.4
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
62s
Control time
183s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Cub Swanson

31-15
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database 24 fights · 14-10
Last 5
L UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
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W UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos …
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L UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Ara…
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W UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
Blue corner
L1

Billy Quarantillo

18-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Nama…
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W UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
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W UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
L UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—