Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Manel Kape
Bruno Silva
78%
22%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 3"
65"
31
Age
Δ 4y
35
22-8
Career record
Δ 12 pp
16-8-2
L1
Current streak
W4
7
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Kape: 111 sig / 0 TD ·
Silva: 57 sig / 0 TD
Manel Kape
Bruno Silva
52
Sig strikes landed
27
98
Sig strikes attempted
77
63
Total strikes landed
35
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
0.8
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
61s
Control time
73s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Manel Kape
"StarBoy"
22-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
W
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
Blue corner
W4
Bruno Silva
"Bulldog"
16-8-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
7 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jand…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—