Back to UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley
Main Welterweight

Colby Covington vs Joaquin Buckley

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley ·Amalie Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Colby Covington
Joaquin Buckley
47% 53%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
37
Age
Δ 6y
31
17-6
Career record
Δ 1 pp
22-8
L1
Current streak
W5
16
UFC fights in our DB
14

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 3
Covington: 37 sig / 1 TD · Buckley: 75 sig / 0 TD
Colby Covington
Joaquin Buckley
66
Sig strikes landed
62
145
Sig strikes attempted
149
104
Total strikes landed
76
3.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
8.9
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.00
Knockdowns
0.50
299s
Control time
30s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Colby Covington

"Chaos"
17-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 16 fights · 12-4
Last 5
L UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
L UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
L UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
Blue corner
W5

Joaquin Buckley

"New Mansa"
22-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database 14 fights · 10-4
Last 5
W UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree J…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
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W UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
—