Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Chris Weidman
Eryk Anders
48%
52%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
40
Age
Δ 3y
38
17-8
Career record
Δ 0 pp
19-9
W1
Current streak
W1
19
UFC fights in our DB
17
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Weidman: 16 sig / 0 TD ·
Anders: 62 sig / 0 TD
Chris Weidman
Eryk Anders
42
Sig strikes landed
50
79
Sig strikes attempted
97
58
Total strikes landed
70
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.5
3.9
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
139s
Control time
169s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Chris Weidman
"The All-American"
17-8
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
19 fights · 12-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
—
L
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
L
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
Blue corner
W1
Eryk Anders
"Ya Boi"
19-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
17 fights · 8-8
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—
L
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—