Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cody Durden
Joshua Van
22%
78%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
65"
34
Age
Δ 11y
23
19-10-1
Career record
Δ 27 pp
18-2
W1
Current streak
W1
11
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Durden: 70 sig / 2 TD ·
Van: 165 sig / 0 TD
Cody Durden
Joshua Van
53
Sig strikes landed
54
104
Sig strikes attempted
108
58
Total strikes landed
80
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
6.8
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
162s
Control time
90s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Cody Durden
"Custom Made"
19-10-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
11 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jand…
—
L
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—
Blue corner
W1
Joshua Van
"The Fearless"
18-2
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—